The finite-sample effects of VAR dimensions on OLS bias, OLS variance, and minimum MSE estimators: Purely nonstationary case

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are an important tool in time series analysis. However, relatively little is known about the nite-sample behaviour of parameter estimators. We address this issue, by investigating ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators given a data generating process that is a purely nonstationary rst-order VAR. Specically, we use Monte Carlo simulation and numerical optimization to derive response surfaces for OLS bias and variance, in terms of VAR dimensions, given correct and (several types of) over-parameterization of the model: we include a constant, and a constant and trend, and introduce excess lags. We then examine the correction factors required for the least squares estimator to attain minimum mean squared error (MSE). Our results improve and extend one of the main nite-sample analytical bias results of Abadir, Hadri and Tzavalis (Econometrica 67 (1999) 163), generalize the univariate variance and MSE ndings of Abadir (Econ. Lett. 47 (1995) 263), and complement various asymptotic studies

Locating Invisible Policies: Health Canada’s Evacuation Policy as a Case Study

I describe an initial tool for revealing invisible policies. Invisible policies are made apparent by three criteria: allocation of resources, material impacts, and reactions. Allocation of resources can be economic, human, or otherwise. Material impacts are those that are tangible and can be described as having a physical impact in some manner. Finally, the reactions of those impacted by the policy, like agencies and scholars, provide a third lens through which these policies can be understood and identified. Using the three criteria, I reveal the long-standing “evacuation policy” as a genuine and authentic policy, which is currently applied to those First Nations populations falling under federal jurisdiction. My contribution to policy analysis is to provide another tool to close a gap in the literature with respect to the analysis of invisible policies.This paper won the Women’s and Gender Studies et Recherches Féministes (WGSRF) Graduate Essay Prize in 2014.RésuméJe décris un outil initial pour révéler les politiques invisibles. Les politiques invisibles sont mises en évidence par trois critères : allocation des ressources, impacts matériels et réactions. L’allocation des ressources peut concerner les ressources économiques, humaines ou autres. Les impacts matériels sont ceux qui sont tangibles et peuvent être décrits comme ayant un impact physique quelconque. Enfin, les réactions de ceux qui sont touchés par la politique, comme les organismes et les chercheurs, fournissent une troisième perspective selon laquelle ces politiques peuvent être comprises et cernées. À l’aide de ces trois critères, je révèle la « politique d’évacuation » de longue date comme une politique véritable et authentique, qui est actuellement appliquée aux populations des Premières Nations relevant de la compétence fédérale. Ma contribution à l’analyse des politiques est de fournir un autre outil pour combler une lacune dans la littérature en ce qui concerne l’analyse des politiques invisibles.Cet article a remporté le Prix de l’essai (cycles supérieurs) de l’association Women’s and Gender Studies et Recherches Féministes (EGFRF) en 2014

River Discharge, in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

U.S. River Discharge for 2008 in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

Computer model for the cardiovascular system: development of an e-learning tool for teaching of medical students

BACKGROUND: This study combined themes in cardiovascular modelling, clinical cardiology and e-learning to create an on-line environment that would assist undergraduate medical students in understanding key physiological and pathophysiological processes in the cardiovascular system. METHODS: An interactive on-line environment was developed incorporating a lumped-parameter mathematical model of the human cardiovascular system. The model outputs were used to characterise the progression of key disease processes and allowed students to classify disease severity with the aim of improving their understanding of abnormal physiology in a clinical context. Access to the on-line environment was offered to students at all stages of undergraduate training as an adjunct to routine lectures and tutorials in cardiac pathophysiology. Student feedback was collected on this novel on-line material in the course of routine audits of teaching delivery. RESULTS: Medical students, irrespective of their stage of undergraduate training, reported that they found the models and the environment interesting and a positive experience. After exposure to the environment, there was a statistically significant improvement in student performance on a series of 6 questions based on cardiovascular medicine, with a 33% and 22% increase in the number of questions answered correctly, p < 0.0001 and p < 0.001 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable improvement was found in students' knowledge and understanding during assessment after exposure to the e-learning environment. Opportunities exist for development of similar environments in other fields of medicine, refinement of the existing environment and further engagement with student cohorts. This work combines some exciting and developing fields in medical education, but routine adoption of these types of tool will be possible only with the engagement of all stake-holders, from educationalists, clinicians, modellers to, most importantly, medical students

Feminist Separatism Revisited

Conflict over who belongs in women-only spaces is now part of mainstream political debate. Some think women-only spaces should exclude on the basis of sex, and others think they should exclude on the basis of a person’s self-determined gender identity. Many who take the latter view appear to believe that the only reason for taking the former view could be antipathy towards men who identify as women. In this paper, we’ll revisit the second-wave feminist literature on separatism, in order to uncover the reasons for women-only spaces as feminists originally conceived them. Once these reasons are understood, those participating in debates over women-only spaces will be in a better position to adjudicate on whether shifting from sex to gender identity puts any significant interests at stake

A Logical Verification Methodology for Service-Oriented Computing

We introduce a logical verification methodology for checking behavioural properties of service-oriented computing systems. Service properties are described by means of SocL, a branching-time temporal logic that we have specifically designed to express in an effective way distinctive aspects of services, such as, e.g., acceptance of a request, provision of a response, and correlation among service requests and responses. Our approach allows service properties to be expressed in such a way that they can be independent of service domains and specifications. We show an instantiation of our general methodology that uses the formal language COWS to conveniently specify services and the expressly developed software tool CMC to assist the user in the task of verifying SocL formulae over service specifications. We demonstrate feasibility and effectiveness of our methodology by means of the specification and the analysis of a case study in the automotive domain

A Review of and Perspectives on Global Change Modeling for Northern Eurasia

Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Major modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic impacts in Northern Eurasia can have major implications for the biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.We acknowledge the funding from the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Land-Cover and Land-Use Change (LCLUC) Program, which provided support for Erwan Monier, David Kicklighter, Andrei Sokolov, Qianlai Zhuang and Sergey Paltsev under grant NNX14AD91G and Irina Sokolik under grant NNX14AD88G. Support for Pavel Groisman was provided by Grant 14.B25.31.0026 of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation and by Project “Arctic Climate Change and its Impact on Environment, Infrastructures, and Resource Availability” sponsored by ANR (France), RFBR (Russia), and NSF (USA) in response to Belmont Forum Collaborative Research Action on Arctic Observing and Research for Sustainability. The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a number of federal agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsor (for the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors)

Does naltrexone treatment lead to depression? Findings from a randomized controlled trial in subjects with opioid dependence

Objective: Dysphoria and depression have been cited as side effects of the opioid antagonist naltrexone. We aimed to assess whether depressive symptoms are a clinically relevant side effect in a population receiving naltrexone as a treatment for opioid dependence. Methods: We carried out a randomized controlled, open-label trial comparing rapid opiate detoxification under anesthesia and naltrexone treatment with continued methadone maintenance at the Alcohol and Drug Service, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. The study subjects were patients stabilized on methadone maintenance treatment for heroin dependence who wished to transfer to naltrexone treatment. The Beck Depression Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Opiate Treatment Index subscales for heroin use and social functioning were used at baseline and follow-up assessments at 1, 2, 3 and 6 months. Results: Forty-two participants were allocated to receive naltrexone treatment, whereas 38 continued methadone maintenance as the control condition. Participants who received naltrexone did not exhibit worsening of depressive symptoms. In participants attending all follow-up assessments, there was a trend for those receiving naltrexone to exhibit an improvement in depression over time compared with the control group. Participants who were adherent to naltrexone treatment exhibited fewer depressive symptoms than those who were nonadherent. Conclusions: These results suggest that depression need not be considered a common adverse effect of naltrexone treatment or a treatment contraindication and that engaging with or adhering to naltrexone treatment may be associated with fewer depressive symptoms